Monday, September 22, 2008

THE 916 DOUBLE BLUFF (from The Dandelions)

[Found this street-savvy analysis of the political impasse posted on The Dandelions - a collective blog operated by some truly smart and funky young Malaysians with their fingers on the pulse of change.]


Posted by jingoisticbuthornydesperado on September 18, 2008

Ok, ok, I opine that September 16 was not meant for Malaysians to take the bait, but for UMNO. September 16 was a double bluff specifically designed for UMNO to take the bait. Why the heck would Anwar want to expose his battle plan for UMNO, so that UMNO has time to defend itself? Why the hell does one play chess and then tell his opponent what his next move is going to be?

(TV Smith)

September 16 was an empty threat. UMNO took the bait (or is it Najib and his cohort, Hamid Albar, as my fellow dandelions first concurred?). UMNO began to put RPK, Teresa and Tan under ISA in the hopes of maybe instigating an all-out protest and reason to declare martial law. It would then be bye-bye, opposition. But that didn’t materialise. Instead, the past few days have successfully swung the political wind to PR’s favour.

People were appalled by the actions of UMNO. The legitimacy of cross-overs becomes less of a question even amongst PR supporters who frowned on cross-overs. I don’t like cross-overs but after the events of the past few days, hell yeah, I am for cross-overs. Anwar doesn’t have to be malicious to get his goals. Anwar forced UMNO into showing its innermost demons (we have already seen the outer demons). Many people say, inner true colours are only shown when one is tremendously stressed, an act of great goodness or great controversy……

September 16 or the recent events surrounding September 16 served to unify PR supporters, split between those for cross-overs and those against to a unanimous pro- cross-over movement. If DSAI succeeds, heck it will be a legitimate, democratically popular cross-over, the first in Malaysian history.

Heck, the September 16 event only further destroys what’s left of UMNO’s unity. As my fellow dandelions have concurred way before me, if Najib and Hamid are behind the ISA and not Abdullah, well it is a sign that Najib the backstabber is beginning to be less subtle and more desperate. Abdullah can’t tell the press that he didn’t use ISA but his minions did, as this will have disastrous consequences to the little leadership credibility that AAB has managed to retain. Najib is not going to be left unpunished.

AAB “rewarded” Najib with the post of Finance Minister 4 or 5 months before the UMNO elections (again, my fellow dandelions have concurred before me). With the recent chain of events striking US financial giants, first and foremost, Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, Merill Lynch and AIG, we have not heard the last of the economic kerfuffle. Malaysia is not going to escape unscathed, and there is little Najib can do to conjure a financial miracle that will help save the US financial system and, in return, help Malaysia. The economy is going to be worse off, and Najib will bear the brunt.

September 16 was an ‘empty’ threat. UMNO made September 16 into an enemy UMNO itself feared most. If UMNO had not done anything, UMNO would not be trapped by the conundrum it is in today.

RPK took a gamble to be a willing pawn to the event leading to September 16. RPK has given UMNO a lot of ‘reasons‘ to apprehend RPK under ISA. RPK is now seen as a martyr for Malaysians who want justice, a swing in PR’s favour. Whether his martyrdom is to be converted to success in toppling UMNO remains to be seen.

I don’t know who has a better chess-playing strategy, but the set-pieces are already moving. Whatever result it may be, it will be preposterous to say that one got lucky winning. Politics is too high-stakes a game to be left to lady luck. Has anyone ever won a chess game by pure luck?